Mid-2005 wolf population estimate for Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming

Note 9-9-05. USFWS has made some small corrections to their 9-2 report. I have made these correction in red below, alongside what they originally reported. I also learned that the YNP Bechler pack was discovered to have 4 adults and 2 pups, instead of 3 adults and 1 pup.

―The beginning of the end of the wolf population increase in the Northern Rockies started to appear two years ago. By the end of 2004 the population had stopped growing and was down in Montana, Yellowstone was about stable and posed for decline, Wyoming was growing slightly, but wolf control by the government was so heavy there that it was the primary factor determining wolf numbers. Only Idaho continued rapid growth. I'm glad to see that mange has perhaps disappeared in Wyoming this year. It is much worse Montana north and northwest of YNP.

Now mid-year 2005 populations estimates are in. The official end of the year numbers will likely be lower because the pups were born in April and May. From then to next April, it is all mortality. However, in the meantime some additional wolf packs will probably be discovered, especially in Montana and Idaho. My opinion. Except for Idaho, and I think by the end of 2006 for Idaho too, wolf population growth is over. So where are all those anti-wolf spokesman who said wolf population would grow forever like Ron Gillete and innumerable politicians?

Here are figures just released from USFWS. I have largely just posted them just as USFWS sent them because I can hardly improve on them. I did some editing, however, to eliminate what might be obscure abbreviations to some readers and make it a bit easier to read (in my opinion, anyway). There are some inconsistencies as to how each state's data are reported.

From USFWS (with slight editing)-
Mid-year 2005 total northern Rocky Mountain wolf population estimate is around 912 wolves (2004 official year end estimate was 835 wolves).
This mid-year wolf population estimate is made to provide a rough idea of the wolf population size in late summer and to find out where we may need focus our monitoring efforts during the remainder of 2005. Because wolf mortality [control and illegal killing] peak in the Fall and wolf surveys are most accurate in November and December when there is snow cover and the packs are most cohesive- the Dec 31 ‘official’ estimate will more accurately reflect our best estimate of actual wolf population size and distribution. At this time it appears the wolf population up slightly, but as was also the case in 2004 only because Idaho’s wolf population continues to grow. Right now it appears that Montana will be about the same, Idaho will be up, and Wyoming down from the ‘official’ wolf population estimate made in December 2004. At this time we don’t know of any wolves in adjacent states. As always, the annual 2004 estimate of wolf breeding pairs [66] will be adjusted in our 2006 annual report to reflect packs with multiple yearlings [indicating they successfully raised >2 more pups in 2004] and met the ‘breeding pair’ definition in 2004 but were not counted in 2004.

MONTANA- Total 166 wolves- (2004 estimate was 153 wolves, which was down from the 2003 estimate of 182 wolves). MFWP is still investigating 7-8 areas of possible wolf pack activity. (Note that below the number of adults in a pack are listed first. A + means it is a new group of wolves)
Northwest Montana [status endangered]- 18 groups, >2 pups confirmed in 9 groups, unknown in 9 groups, +61 adults and +32 pups (That's 94 total estimated, end of 2004 was 59 wolves). Details- Hog Heaven [2-3 adults and ? pups], Kintla [6 and 4], Whitefish [6-7 and ?], Murphy Lake [3 and 2], Lazy Creek [4 and ?], Wolf Prairie [4 and 4], Fish Trap [8-9 and >2], Candy Mt. [5-6 and >2], Spotted Bear [? and ?], Great Bear [? and ?], Kootenai [+2 and +2], Ninemile [+3 and 5], Burdette Cr/Fish CR [+5 and 9], Superior [+2 and ?], Big Hole [MT den found and +2], Halfway [+3 and ?], Red Shale [+1 and ?], and Avon [7 and ?].
Southwest Montana- [experimental population area] 18 groups, >2 pups confirmed in 6 packs, unknown in 12, +55 adults and +18 pups. (That's 73 total estimated. End of 2004 was 94 wolves). Details- Brooks Creek [+1 adults and ? pups], Sula [5 and 5], Black Canyon [3 and >2], Sapphire [8 and ?], Willow [+4 and ?], East Fork Bitterroot [+4 and ?], Painted Rocks [5 and ?], Mission [4 and 0], Moccasin [4 and ?], Rose Creek II [+1 and >2], Mill Creek [?and ?], Donahue [2 and ?], Chief Joe [? and ?], Dead Horse [2 and 4], Freezeout [+5 and 3-4], Cameron/Homestead [1 and 0- no longer a pack], Bear Trap [3 and >2], the Wedge [3 and ?], and Jardine [+1 and ?]. Six packs have mange in the MT portion of the experimental population of the Greater Yellowstone Area, they and have experienced significant adult and pup mortality.

IDAHO- Total estimate 500-550 wolves. End of 2004 was 422 wolves. (USFWS used 525 for an ‘estimate’) in +53 groups, >2 pups 35 groups, 11 other groups are suspected, and 15 other reports of possible groups have yet to be investigated, there were at least 115-125 pups, the number of adults is not estimated for most Idaho packs because of rugged terrain and heavy forest cover. Documented packs- Avery [2 pups], Bear Valley [+3], Bennett Mt. [0], Biscuit Basin [2], Blue Ranch [4], Buffalo Ridge [6-7], Calder [+2], Calderwood Basin [?], Chamberlain Basin [?], Chesmia [3], Cold Springs [?], Cooper Basin [2], Coolwater Ridge [4], Eagle Mt. [?], Earthquake Basin [6], East Pass [+3], Eldorado [?], Five Lakes Butte [2-3], Florence [6-9], Galena [3], Gold Fork [2], Golden Creek [?], Gospel Hump [?], Hazard Lake [?], Hemlock Ridge [+2], Hughes Creek [5], Jungle Creek [+2], Jureano Mt. [+3], Kelly Creek [2-3], Lochsa [3], Magruder [?], Marble Mt. [2], Monumental [2], Morgan Creek [5], Moyer Basin [5], O’Hara Point [6], Orphan/Scott Valley [5 adults and 4], Owl Creek [?], Packer John [3-4], Partridge Creek [?], Red River [+2], Scott Mt. [4], Selway [?], Soldier Mt. [4], Steel Mt. [4-7], Stolle Meadow [1], Timberline [3], Thunder Mt. [?], Twin Peaks [?], Warm Springs [+2], Wolf Fang [?], and Yankee Fork [+2]. Suspected Packs- Big Buck, Bimerick, Castle Peak, Indian Creek, Marble Mt. 2, Pen Basin, Pettibone, B45/B257, B147, B194, and Y239. Possible but undetermined packs- Carey/Craters, W. Side Cascade Res., Fish Creek meadows, Giant Cedar/B256, Granddad, Hansen Meadows/Pony Flats, Haystack Mt/W. Elk City, Lehmi, Lower Mores Creek, Lower N. Fork Clearwater, Nez Perce Female, Moose Creek/Lower Selway, Pikes Fork, Upper Main Weiser, and Willow Creek Summit.

WYOMING- Total- 221 wolves in 22 groups, >2 pups in 17 (13) groups. [2004 estimate was 260 wolves].
Yellowstone National Park- Total 118 wolves, 12 groups, >2 pups confirmed in 6 groups, unknown in 1, with 97 adults and 21 pups. [YNP 2004 estimate was 171 wolves, so a big decline!]. Swan Lake [3 adults and 0 pups- may not longer exist as pack], Leopold [22 and 1], Geode [0 and 0- no longer a pack], Specimen Ridge [0 and 0- no longer a pack], Agate Creek [5 and 2], Slough Creek [12 and 3], Druid Peak [6 and 1], Mollies [8 and 0], Delta [11 and 5], Bechler [4 and 2], Nez Perce [10 and 3], Cougar Creek [9 and ?], Gibbon Meadows [6 and 3], and Hayden Valley [2 and 2]. Biscuit Basin pack moved out of the Park and into Idaho and is counted as an Idaho pack. This year it appears that Yellowstone Park packs had very low pup survival, natural mortality of adults was high, and 4 packs broke-up/dissolved. In addition to a suspected parvo-virus outbreak, this is likely the continuation of an expected social adjustment of Park wolves to ‘crowding’ on the northern range and lower prey density relative to high wolf numbers.
Wyoming Outside Yellowstone National Park- Total- 102 wolves in 11 groups, >2 pups confirmed in 7 groups, unknown pups in 4 groups, +65 adults and +37 pups. [2004 estimate was 89 wolves] Washakie [5 adults and ? pups], Teton [9 and 5], Flat Creek [3 and 6], Pacific Creek [+5 and ?], Beartooth [6 and ?], Sunlight [6 and 8], Absaroka [4 and 6], South Fork Shoshone [4 and 5], Wood River [2 and 3], Greybull River [7 and ?], and Carter Mtn [3 and 4]. The Upper Green River, Daniel, and Farson packs were eliminated by agency control in 2005. There are also +11 additional suspected misc. wolves as loners or non-breeding pairs. Mange hasn’t been documented in WY in 2005 but was in 2004 and 2003.